Projected changes in recurrence time for annual maximum 24-hour precipitation that occurs, on average, once in 10, 20, and 50 years in the late century across Canada, as simulated by Earth system models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under a low emission scenario (RCP2.6; upper) and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5; lower). The projections are at global climate model resolution, and the processes that produce 24-hour extreme precipitation at local scale are not well represented. Therefore, projections should be interpreted with caution. The shading represents the range between the 25th and 75th percentiles.
Values are computed based on Kharin et al., 2013, adapted from ECCC, 2016.