Fredericton’s Urban Forest Management Strategy

Fredericton’s Urban Forest Management Strategy (UFMS) is a 25-year vision guiding the management and stewardship of the city’s urban forest, and was developed by Stantic Consulting Ltd. Using climate-informative data analysis and species assessments, the UFMS identifies prioritized, direct, and actionable recommendations for the City of Fredericton to help mitigate the impacts of development pressures and climate change, while sustaining a biodiverse, climate-resilient urban forest over the long term.

Fredericton is experiencing a period marked by significant population growth and the urban forest remains a crucial component of maintaining the city’s livability. The development of the UFMS was prompted by population growth projections over the next 10 to 20 years. While Fredericton already possessed a strong internal capacity for tree care and management, it lacked a formal, long-term strategy to guide urban forest protection. In 2022, the City of Fredericton proactively commissioned Stantec Consulting Ltd to develop a 25-year urban management strategy for municipal lands, ensuring that growth could continue, while maintaining equitable canopy cover to support long-term climate resilience and ecological health. 

The urban forest is defined as all trees within the City of Fredericton including street trees, forests, private lands, parks, and natural areas. Fredericton’s UFMS is part of a broader suite of City-led initiatives to grow responsibly by planning ahead for strategic preservation of existing trees, and planting of new tree species to support a diverse and resilient urban forest. In 2023, Stantec provided the City with the Urban Forest Technical Report (UFTR) (found in APPENDIX A of the UFMS), summarizing the existing state of Fredericton’s urban forest. The UFMS builds upon the findings of the UFTR, integrating feedback from internal City departments and public engagement processes. The UFMS presents a series of guiding principles and management practices for long-term viability of Fredericton’s urban forest. 

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Understanding and Assessing Impacts

During early phases of project development, commonly used urban forestry benchmarks (such as Ontario’s 40% canopy cover target) were deemed inappropriate for Fredericton’s local context. Fredericton has over 19,000 street trees in its urban core, and over 4,000,000 trees in its broader urban forest, and already maintains a 67 per cent urban canopy cover – among the highest in all Canadian cities. Initial studies found that from 2015 to 2023, land development alone contributed to a reduction in canopy coverage by about three per cent. 

Because Fredericton’s municipal boundary is immediately adjacent to extensive forested areas, changes to municipal boundaries in the future could significantly distort canopy-based performance metrics. As a result, rather than pursuing a percentage-based target, Stantec’s analysis shifted toward evaluating the functional performance of the urban forest and the equitable distribution of canopy cover across neighbourhoods – an approach adapted from the Tree Equity methodology of the American Forest national program. 

Tree canopy coverage and species diversity were identified as primary metrics of urban forest health, directly influencing ecological functions such as urban cooling, carbon storage and sequestration, and stormwater regulation, while also supporting human mental and physical health. Much of the the City’s surrounding forest cover reflects a softwood plantation dominated by spruce and fir, which are associated with historic forestry practices, in place of the region’s native Wabanaki (Acadian) Forest – which would offer superior performance for urban resilience, biodiversity, climate adaptation, and fire resistance. While not a focus from the outset, Acadian Forest restoration emerged as a critical long-term priority and solution in the development of the UFMS. 

Fredericton’s urban forest is also facing increasing pressure from invasive pests and pathogens. Birch and other tree species are experiencing heightened stress, with the most prevalent examples being the ash trees threatened by emerald ash borer since 2021, and elm trees threatened by Dutch elm disease since the 1960’s. 

Early site analyses established two foundational directions of the UFMS: 

  1. Socioeconomic and urban forest distribution mapping to guide equitable investment; and 
  2. Long-term recovery of the native forest system. 

To manage projected population growth and prioritize sustainable development, the City of Fredericton also established a Growth Strategy and Municipal Plan intended to be implemented in conjunction with the recommendations of the UFMS.

Use of climate information in decision-making:

The use of climate data was central to the recommendations of the UFMS. The data were interpreted by a climate scientist working within the project team at Stantec, who helped to translate the information into actionable design and management items, in collaboration with the lead landscape architect.

While the City has been proactive in managing invasive diseases, climate change has significantly increased stress on tree species. Climate data provided by Natural Resources Canada was used to develop future plant species distribution maps, based on the climate parameters of known species ranges. These models were used to assess the suitability of existing tree species, as well as the suitability of trees from warmer-climate ecosystems. As conditions shift due to warmer temperatures and increased annual precipitation, native species may become less suited to the region, while certain species from southern climates may become more adapted. Boreal species native to the Acadian Forest, which include balsam fir, aspen, and paper birch, were particularly important in the development of the UFMS given their longstanding prevalence in the ecosystem. However, projected climate change conditions are expected to alter the tolerance ranges of these species by 2100, making their long-term persistence within the city unlikely. 

Climate data indicating warmer, drier conditions also identified wildfires as a growing concern. Likewise, increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events pose a growing threat of significant damage to Fredericton’s trees. These findings informed recommendations of the UFMS based on how different areas of the urban forest were evaluated for climate resilience, using climate data and analysis of forest composition to identify vulnerability. Whereas continuous forested areas have a greater ability to adapt to various climate stresses because of their ecological redundancy, street trees and fragmented landscapes were identified as highly vulnerable due to isolation, heat from surrounding grey infrastructure and limited soil moisture. Conifer-dominated forests also present a higher risk of burning due to the drier conditions and the flammability of resin-rich conifer wood, further emphasizing the importance of species diversity and the restoration of mixed-wood Acadian Forests for future viability. 

Land surface temperature across Fredericton, June 2023
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Image of a sustainable urban rainwater management project in the City of Vancouver. The schematic includes incorporation of greenscaping as a way of not only beautifying the streetscape, but also to provide functional purposes such as rainwater management and small areas of habitat refugia. The image shows the integration of sustainable design with climate adaptation actions. Specific foci are on the inclusion of more city street trees, native plants, areas for pollinators, rain gardens, and the creation of common spaces for gathering.
Extent of the urban forest canopy model within the UFMS
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Image of a sustainable urban rainwater management project in the City of Vancouver. The schematic includes incorporation of greenscaping as a way of not only beautifying the streetscape, but also to provide functional purposes such as rainwater management and small areas of habitat refugia. The image shows the integration of sustainable design with climate adaptation actions. Specific foci are on the inclusion of more city street trees, native plants, areas for pollinators, rain gardens, and the creation of common spaces for gathering.

Identifying Actions

The Tree Equity methodology was used to measure existing versus potential canopy cover based on building footprints provided by the City’s Planning Department. Spatial data was then layered with socioeconomic and demographic indicators to identify areas where low tree cover overlaps with high heat vulnerability and social need, using census data from the Université Laval and publicly available national datasets. 

The goal of the UFMS is to advance strategies that build resilience and proactively balance city growth with the urban forest ecosystem. The UFMS recommendations were developed through the interpretation of the UFTR findings and through public engagement processes. Public engagement revealed key community priorities such as wildlife habitat and biodiversity recovery, among other considerations, which directly informed recommendations to increase riparian tree cover and guide the succession toward native Acadian Forest types. Other priorities identified through the public engagement process included the support for streams and trail corridors to strengthen habitat connectivity. During project development, the City prioritized ongoing communication with the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick, and the Wolastoq Grand Council as Indigenous Rightsholders.

The UFMS recommendations are sorted into three categories: urban forest planning, outreach and partnerships, and operational excellence. While many of the recommendations build on existing practices, others introduce new initiatives that are critical to sustaining effective urban forest management. As short term projected population growth places further pressure on Fredericton’s canopy cover, maintaining a high level of diversity and urban forest cover is essential to the city’s livability and future climate resilience. Other UFMS recommendations include increasing annual tree planting and supporting greater tree diversity to prevent disease and pests from harming tree populations, and to mitigate the intensifying impacts of climate change.

Summary of design intentions: 

  1. Enable necessary urban growth while maintaining equitable canopy cover and a biodiverse urban forest to support environmental health and community wellbeing.
  2. Achieve gradual ecological succession of the urban forest back to the Acadian Forest to strengthen long-term climate resilience and ecosystem functioning.
Tree cover across Fredericton’s urban forest
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Image of a sustainable urban rainwater management project in the City of Vancouver. The schematic includes incorporation of greenscaping as a way of not only beautifying the streetscape, but also to provide functional purposes such as rainwater management and small areas of habitat refugia. The image shows the integration of sustainable design with climate adaptation actions. Specific foci are on the inclusion of more city street trees, native plants, areas for pollinators, rain gardens, and the creation of common spaces for gathering.

Implementation

The UFMS came into effect in October 2024. Although a large portion of Fredericton’s urban forest is located on private lands (and is therefore managed by individuals, institutions and private companies), the portion of the urban forest on municipal land is managed by a multidisciplinary team of foresters, arborists, horticulturists and other specialized professionals. 

To guide the implementation of the recommendations under the UFMS, a structured sequence was developed using identified dependencies between recommendations to ensure that the foundational actions are completed before subsequent initiatives begin. The implementation sequence provides strategic guidance, while also being adjustable based on funding availability and opportunities for new partnerships. The recommendations are organized into short, medium, and long-term actions, with an expected implementation horizon of 10–12 years. Early priorities focused on established canopy protection standards, canopy retention and replacement requirements, and species selection guidelines to enhance resilience and diversity. For a more integrated implementation process within broader city-wide operations, immediate actions also aim to increase coordination between urban forestry staff and roads and capital works departments. Along with ongoing collaboration with local Indigenous communities to advance informed stewardship and traditional knowledge integration, longer-term actions focus on the restoration of the Acadian Forest. 

The City of Fredericton will continue to guide urban forestry management through annual reporting and budgeting. The detailed implementation of the UFMS will be formalized annually through an implementation plan prepared by Parks and Trees staff to align recommendations with the City’s budget cycle. The first plan was submitted in 2024 for inclusion in the 2025 City budget.

Outcomes and Monitoring Progress

The UFMS advances a sustained approach to preventative maintenance, which includes mitigation of storm-related damage, proactive pest management, and the strategic planting of replacement trees. While emerging stressors such as the emerald ash borer and climate change persist, the resilience and long-term health of the urban forest have been significantly strengthened. 

The UFMS includes monitoring tools to be reviewed every 10 years. The City is planning to track every tree planted, including the survival and failure rates, and performance by site type (e.g., parking lots vs. parks). Species performance is re-evaluated and adjusted on an ongoing basis. Rather than immediately focusing on species associated with future climate conditions, the strategy presents a framework that recognizes that some species, while being well suited for long-term climate changes (50 years and beyond), may not survive present-day conditions. As a result, near-term planting of currently resilient species will be prioritized, with suggestions for future introductions of other species based on evolving climate thresholds over the next decades.

Stantec’s development of Fredericton’s UFMS exemplifies the use of open, low-cost and accessible methods, using public datasets and other non-proprietary tools, and presenting a precedent for other cities to replicate without relying on external consultants. A central principle to this process was the careful attention to site context, ensuring that the recommendations proposed are both equitable and ecologically effective, by translating climate data for practical decision-making. By leveraging widely available data with GIS analysis and critical professional thinking, Fredericton’s UFMS illustrates how data models can inform decisions and be tested against contextual site conditions. The continuous evaluation embedded within the recommendations will help ensure that decisions continue to adapt over time and remain effective.

Highlights of the Landscape Architect:

Through the development of Fredericton’s UFMS, the lead landscape architect (Landon Black, OALA APALA CSLA) on the Stantec team also served as Project Manager, overseeing the multidisciplinary workflow, interpreting the scientific information, and compiling the final documentation. This process showcases the profession’s ability to translate complex technical inputs into clear, actionable planning outcomes for community development and climate resilience. Many of the core concepts established throughout this project formed the foundation of a replicable climate adaptation planning framework, particularly the development of the socioeconomic analysis and the coordinated integration of the municipal planning department. 

More broadly, the UFMS illustrates how landscape architects serve as integrators within projects of this type, linking climate science, forestry, urban planning, and policy. By illustrating how practitioners can interpret complex climate data and translate the findings into spatial strategies, policy recommendations, and implementable design actions, landscape architects can advance evidence-based, on-the-ground action to create resilient, adaptive communities. 

Tree canopy cooling capacity
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Image of a sustainable urban rainwater management project in the City of Vancouver. The schematic includes incorporation of greenscaping as a way of not only beautifying the streetscape, but also to provide functional purposes such as rainwater management and small areas of habitat refugia. The image shows the integration of sustainable design with climate adaptation actions. Specific foci are on the inclusion of more city street trees, native plants, areas for pollinators, rain gardens, and the creation of common spaces for gathering.

Next Steps

To support the transitional period between young, newly planted trees and the full ecological, environmental, and social benefits they will eventually provide as a healthy mature urban canopy, the City has established a dedicated greenhouse supplying street and park planting programs with native tree species grown from locally sourced seeds. This initiative enhances the suitability of tree species by improving planting success, producing climate-appropriate, locally adapted tree stock, while also reducing dependence on southern Ontario nurseries, where reliability of supply has become an increasingly critical issue amid shifting climate zones and regional shortages. 

Advancing the recommendations under the UFMS requires strong public involvement, particularly because more that 80% of the urban forest in Canadian cities, Fredericton included, is located on private land and thus directly influences long-term canopy success. Immediate next steps for the successful implementation of both short and long-term recommendations depend on ongoing public engagement as an operational requirement, in addition to the establishment of consistent policy and regulatory frameworks that continue to integrate forestry targets and goals with policy and planning decisions. Ongoing partnerships with conservation groups and continued expansion of community-based planting and efforts will remain essential throughout the process, playing a pivotal role in seed collection, propagation and large-scale planning and conservation work, and advancing shared stewardship of the urban forest. 

Resources

 

This case study was prepared and authored by Sabrina Careri (Design Communications) on behalf of the CSLA. It forms part of the landADAPT Case Study Series, an educational resource and advocacy tool developed by the CSLA with the support of Natural Resources Canada’s Climate Change Adaptation Program.