Climate Change Information Products for Agricultural Communities in Bruce, Grey and Huron Counties of Southern Ontario

Over the course of two years (2020-2022), the Climate Risk Institute, thanks to funding from Bruce Power, was contracted by the Council of the Great Lakes Region (CGLR) to work on engaging the agricultural, communities in Grey, Bruce, and Huron counties with the goal of producing knowledge and information products that address opportunities and risks related to climate change impacts on the sector. According to the 2016 Census of Agriculture, the area is home to 6,700 farms, cultivating approximately 1,300,000 acres of farmland. The main commodities include calves and cattle, hogs, dairy, soybeans, and poultry, while oilseed and grain farming represents the largest number of farms by industry group. This project was part of a multi-year study to understand the state of climate change science in the Great Lakes and the impacts of a changing climate on various sectors and ecosystems in the region. Over the course of the research work, literature on climate change vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities was assembled and reviewed to develop risk scenarios and capture current and projected risks to different components of the agricultural sector. Consultations with stakeholders representing the local farming community, agricultural organizations, municipalities and conservation authorities helped obtain information about experiences of past changes in relation to climate change impacts, risks and weather concerns. An online working session was held to review and present risk assessment findings and discuss options for priority climate risk and information products. The three main objectives that the products aimed to ultimately achieve include raising awareness, supporting planning and design, and finally, supporting implementation and adaptation. The developed knowledge and information products include:

  • Risk registry infographics
  • GIS mapping of key climate hazard indicators and risk sensitivity factors
  • GIS mapping of areas most likely to benefit from adoption of BMPs
  • Case studies of successful implementation of BMPs
Read the Summary Link to Full Case Study

Understanding and Assessing Impacts

Agriculture is an important industry in the counties of Grey, Bruce and Huron. The changing climate can introduce new or accentuate existing risks to agriculture including but not limited to soil erosion and nutrient depletion, delays in farming operations, increased runoff and water contamination, reduced yields, increased susceptibility to disease, and higher production costs. Warmer temperatures could also be beneficial to agriculture in the Great Lakes region, resulting in longer growing and grazing seasons, increased crop yields, and the potential to grow new crop species in a warmer climate. A literature review was conducted to identify key climate hazards, impacts, opportunities, and risks for the main components of the agricultural sector, and a draft risk registry was produced to assess and quantify risk. Risk scenarios were developed to consider how a climate hazard can cascade to direct and indirect impacts for different components of the sector. Risk was defined as the potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain. The risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. The climate impact pathway begins with climate hazards (like drought or extreme rainfall) that impact agriculture components (like crops, livestock and infrastructure) and then these impacts can have consequences across multiple categories (like financial loss and environmental damage). Climate data was obtained from literature as well as the Climate Change Hazards Information Portal (CCHIP), a web-based tool that uses data from 40 of the most recent Global Climate Models and many other sources to provide defensible, actionable conclusions about changes across a whole array of climate and severe weather-related conditions. The study examined historic (1981-2010) and projected future (2050s) trends in a number of climate variables under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario.

For additional climate information, look at the Resources section of this example (below).

Identifying Actions

In order to adequately assess climate-related risks, seven (7) key themes with key components or sub-sectors were identified. These include:

  • Field crops (soybeans, corn, wheat, hay and clover),
  • Livestock (calves and cattle, hogs, dairy, poultry and eggs),
  • Fruit and vegetables (apples),
  • Soil (soil quality and fertility),
  • Water resources (surface water, groundwater),
  • Farm infrastructure (buildings, power sources),
  • Farm operations (planting, harvesting, pesticide application).

Work began in 2020 and involved assembling and reviewing literature on climate change vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities and developing risk scenarios to capture current and projected risks to different components of the agricultural sector. Interviews with stakeholders representing the local farming community, agricultural organizations, municipalities and conservation authorities helped obtain information about their experiences of past changes in relation to climate change impacts, risks and weather which informed the risk registry. The main findings from literature and interviews were presented to members of the agricultural community and options for priority climate risks and information products were discussed during an online working session. Considering feedback, the assessment plan was developed to address key hazard and risk issues, and develop several information products, including infographics, case studies of successful implementation of best management practices (BMPs), and web maps of (a) key climate hazard indicators and risk sensitivity factors and (b) areas most likely to benefit from adoption of BMPs. For this assessment a conservative approach was taken to assigning likelihoods. The likelihood refers to the occurrence of the climate event (like drought as a result of low precipitation) and the cascading impacts assumed to also occur. This is a precautionary approach, as in a “real-life” scenario the climate event occurring may not always result in all other impacts. Severity of impact consequences was assessed in four categories: financial losses, environmental damage, infrastructure damage and service disruption, and human health and public safety.

Implementation

Through literature reviews, major impacts expected as a result of key climate drivers were identified for relevant agricultural sector components. As an example, Spring and Fall frost result in cold damage to fruit trees, perennial and annual crops, compromised fall hardening and reduced yield. Stakeholder engagement was an integral part of this study that continually informed the results and direction of the project. Individual interviews were conducted in the Fall of 2021 (December and January) to begin hearing about weather and climate concerns in the region. In total, 8 farmers and farming organizations, 8 conservation authorities and 4 local organizations were interviewed. The interview responses were used to further develop risk information work and then an online working session was held in February that presented the preliminary results and gave stakeholders an opportunity to brainstorm how this information can be conveyed to the community. Using information on climate variables, agricultural sector components, and major climate-related impacts and vulnerabilities obtained from literature and validated during interviews with stakeholders, a risk registry was developed and populated. A total of 26 possible risk scenarios were assessed for the degree of current and future risk. Risk scenarios consider how a climate hazard can cascade to direct and indirect impacts for different subsectors. Climate indicators are used to describe how a climate hazard can be represented using weather and climate data so that projections can be made for future climate change. Components can be impacted in different ways by climate events. For example, frost conditions affecting winter wheat and apple trees are different, which has been reflected in the scenarios.

Outcomes and Monitoring Progress

Through the research and engagement work it was evident that information on risk needs to be supported with information on solutions. With that in mind the information products produced aimed to help inform adaptation solutions and recognize how agriculture will be an integral aspect of this work across the region. As the project wrapped up in March 2022, an online webinar was hosted to present the main findings, explain key climate risks and demonstrate developed information products. The products include:

  1. Infographics focused on the agricultural sector in Grey, Bruce and Huron counties that summarize:
    • Climate-related trends and impacts; and
    • Climate hazards and risks.
  2. Case Studies of successful implementation of best management practices (BMPs) and Alternative Land Use Services (ALUS). This was important since providing solution-oriented information and demonstrating the importance of BMPs and Alternative Land Use Services was key to finding to implementing effective solutions to existing and future climate issues. The case studies series report showcases various BMPs and ALUS projects implemented across Grey, Bruce and Huron counties. Selected case studies range in scale, from regional-level to on-farm applications, highlighting the benefits and outcomes of each project.
  3. GIS Web Maps that show historic and projected values for key climate variables and indicators for the region overlaid with sensitivity factors such as soil type, slope, crop type and more. Sensitivity to erosion, drought, flooding and frost are featured along with BMPs that could be most effective as solutions to existing and future issues. Baseline data on topography, hydrological features such as lakes and streams, as well as municipal boundaries and population centers are included.

Next Steps

In the next year, with funding from OMAFRA’s Agri-Food Research Initiative, CRI will be offering a training series on climate trends, impacts, on-farm resiliency and risk assessment in Grey, Bruce and Huron counties. These sessions will address:

  1. regional climate projections and hazards information;
  2. climate change and agriculture risks and opportunities;
  3. vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity; and,
  4. adaptation response planning and the role of BMPs.

Participants/trainees will include representatives of local and regional associations, agricultural producers, and a range of organizations that work closely with the agricultural sector, like local conservation authorities. The training will be designed to: maximize peer-to-peer learning opportunities; include experts with specific technical knowledge on key hazards (CAs for flooding), and best management practices (ALUS); and, maximize its eventual transferability to other ON regions.

Resources

Link to Full Case Study:

Additional Resources: