Understanding and Assessing Impacts
Harrop-Procter Community Co-op went about understanding and assessing impacts by analyzing provincial climate change data as well conducting risk assessments. The area has already experienced a number of significant wildfire events including one in 2003 which sparked initial recognition of the need to address and adapt to future climate change related events. Another large fire event in 2017 further highlighted the gravity of the situation. In order to systematically understand the impacts of wildfire events in the area extensive risk mapping was undertaken. This mapping aided in balancing priorities of conserving natural habitats as well as protecting human health and included current data as well as future projections. Historical data was employed to visualize various aspects of the area and individual variables which may contribute to wildfire probability in the present such as forest canopy fuel weight, soil moisture, and ecosystem moisture. Historical data was also used to plot the extent, date and cause of past wildfire events (with many attributed to lightning strikes). Finally, the mapping also utilized provincial climate data projections in order to understand the consequences wildfires would have on nearby homes and infrastructure, water, biodiversity, and timber. It was deemed that any built form, timber or biodiversity which currently resides on dry or ‘submesic’ land should be considered a top priority. Further, headwater areas with high fuel loads should also be carefully protected. Comparisons were made between 2018 and 2085 scenarios. Climatic projections for the area show that the summer season will get warmer and drier while the fall, winter and spring will become wetter with increased instances of extreme precipitation. Given this, summer wildfire events are expected to become more extensive in the future.