Understanding and Assessing Impacts
Community and public records reaching back to 1801 show that the Village of Perth-Andover experienced almost no flood events until 1976. After the construction of a hydro dam on the St. John River, the community experienced several flooding events from 1976 to 2009. However, these events resulted in relatively little damage when contrasted with the major flood in March 2012. More than 150 homes, businesses, churches, and public buildings were damaged or destroyed in Perth-Andover—a village with a population of only 1,600. This devastating incident caused unprecedented loss and highlighted the need for adaptation. The need for adaptation was made further evident when projections indicated that future water levels could exceed those experienced in 2012. A number of studies established a new scientific and engineering consensus about flood risk in the community—an issue that was largely disregarded prior to 2012. In Perth-Andover, a consensus emerged that the risk of recurring flooding must be confronted given past events, future projections, and risk assessments conducted by scientists and engineers. Historical data from the 2012 flood was used in conjuncture with vulnerability assessments to determine areas in the community that were at risk of severe flood damage in the future. Anticipating the future impacts of climate change on the severity of floods in Perth-Andover was particularly critical to the development of proactive adaptation measures. Protecting against a similar flood to the one in 2012 was not enough; Perth-Andover anticipated that due to climate change, future flooding could exceed the water levels experienced in the devastating flood of 2012.
For additional climate information, look at the Resources section of this example (below).