Understanding and Assessing Impacts
The City of Fredericton, New Brunswick, historically experienced a higher number of hot days than elsewhere in the Maritimes. Climate projections indicated that the number of hot days in Fredericton were expected to double by 2050, coupled with an increase in warmer nights. This made extreme heat as a public health risk an emerging issue for Fredericton that was largely unaddressed. As part of the development of the Heat Alert and Response System, Fredericton partnered with Health Canada and the New Brunswick Department of Health to assess vulnerabilities in the local community. Health Canada led a temperature-mortality analysis for the City, which revealed that when the daily maximum temperature exceeded 30 degrees Celsius, there was a sharp spike in mortality. The study made it clear that without further adaptation, heat-related health risks in Fredericton would continue to increase with a changing climate. Before the Heat Alert and Response System pilot project, the City of Fredericton would rely on a press release from New Brunswick Health, derived from Environment Canada weather warnings, to inform the public of an extreme heat event. This system not only lacked clarity, but it failed to engage the local community and introduce adaptive measures that were desperately needed in the wake of increasing temperatures posing more frequent and severe heat-health risks for the population of Fredericton. Health Canada and New Brunswick Health’s climate projections and initial analysis of the issue identified the need and laid the foundation for the development of a Heat Alert and Response System in Fredericton.