Understanding and Assessing Impacts
To assesses the vulnerability of the Town of Faro’s water, sewer, storm and road infrastructure, the WSP assessment team identified the following infrastructure and climate parameters: temperature (average annually and by season), precipitation (including summer precipitation, heavy precipitation, and snow), frost, and cumulative events. Trends of these climate parameters were studied using modelled data from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) downscaled models, provided through the Climate Atlas of Canada, and supplemented with a literature review. Downscaled models were derived from 12 CMIP5 global climate models. RCP8.5 was selected for this study to best represent exposure in the worst case, business as usual scenario. Estimates for future maximum daily precipitation were calculated using the IDF_CC tool developed at Western University. The climate change analysis looked at the 2040- and 2070-time horizons, based on information provided in the Town of Faro Infrastructure Master Plan — 20 years (2040s) for roads, culverts, and drainage ditches and 50 years (2070s) for underground infrastructure, based on standard service life of the infrastructure components.
Historical data was obtained from Environment Canada’s climate normal station data collected between 1981 and 2010 at the Faro Airport meteorological monitoring station and reviewed to develop an understanding of the climate over 30-year periods to understand average conditions and extreme events.
At the onset of the project, it was determined that there was insufficient capacity within the town to hold a workshop. Instead, questions were sent to operational staff to share reflections on previously experienced weather events and observations about the assessment. The assessment team felt comfortable taking this approach as many of the experts involved had previously conducted site visits and worked in Faro. Examples of feedback received include less snowfall in the Winter of 2018/2019 and no observed changes in freeze-thaw cycles. Overall, the feedback helped identify potential climate trends and identify areas for further investigation.
Results of the climate change projections when compared with modelled historical data showed a projected increase in mean annual temperature, more heavy and intense rainfall events, less frost events, and permafrost thaw, which increases the vulnerability of the town’s infrastructure to failure or loss of function. For example, as permafrost thaws, settlement could impact underground infrastructure that is designed to flow with gravity (like sanitary and storm sewers) and changes to the slope could cause sags and blockages. For water services, cracks and ruptures could occur and lead to water quality impacts. Similarly to permafrost thaw, heavy rain and changes to rainfall patterns could result in washout and erosion.
A unique feature for climate resilience assessments conducted in Northern Canada is the consideration of permafrost. After completing the assessment, further borehole testing was conducted in the town, revealing no presence of permafrost. These findings were fortunate as the absence of permafrost significantly reduced the vulnerability of the infrastructure systems to climate change. Nonetheless, other assessments in permafrost regions must not overlook these vulnerability factors.