Understanding and Assessing Impacts
In recent decades, Alberta has experienced significant changes in its climate as well as its economy, population and environment. Alberta’s mean annual temperatures are increasing and projected to continue to rise in the coming decades—potentially by 2.0°C by the 2030s and 4.0°C by the 2060s (compared to the 1990s)—should the current rate of global greenhouse gas emissions remain unchanged. Total average annual precipitation is also projected to increase, but this change will vary between seasons; precipitation levels are likely to increase more in the winter and decline in the summer. While these shifts in average climate conditions are significant, the more profound risk of climate change lies in the expected increase in climate variability and extreme weather events such as longer heat waves and more frequent heavy rainstorms. The impacts of climate change most relevant to urban energy and information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure are the projected higher frequency of extreme events such as floods, storms, forest fires and drought episodes. The Prairie Climate Centre analyzed local climate projections for the City of Calgary and the City of Edmonton. From here, the projections were applied to the energy and ICT sectors, finding several climate risks and impacts. The impacts of climate change that were found most relevant to urban energy and information and communication technology infrastructure are the projected higher frequency of extreme events such as floods, storms, forest fires and drought episodes. Energy, more so than information infrastructure, will also be affected by secular climate trends, such as long-term shifts in the water resources available for hydropower generation and thermal power plant cooling as well as overall warmer temperatures that will increase air conditioning loads.