Understanding and Assessing Impacts
Climate change impacts on the forest ecosystem are diverse, and Quebec is already observing changes in the form of rising temperatures that are affecting the distribution and health of tree species, increased rainfall leading to soil erosion and flooding, droughts causing water stress and damage to trees, more frequent and severe forest fires due to prolonged dry periods, and more frequent freeze-thaw events. The Outaouais region which contains parts of the Boreal Forest, has experienced more drought events in the spring, and in the fall, which leads to an increased risk to trees.
To identify climate risks to each region, an expert team from the MNRF conducted a vulnerability assessment, which combined climate data models with habitat models, and a literature review to support findings. In collaboration with Ouranos, the team used data from Climate Portraits – a regional portal of climate-related information that offers spatialized information across Quebec to visualize climate normals, historic observations and the changes projected by climate models. The portal uses Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 (CMIP5/CMIP6) simulations for the 2050 time period, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5.
The study found that by 2050, there could be more droughts, a longer growing season, higher average temperatures, more freeze-thaw events, and higher peak-flows. These changes can affect how the forest works, like how much it produces, what trees grow there, how much gets burned in fires, how often new trees grow, and how bugs and invasive plants spread. The roads and infrastructure in the forests might also be affected. The study also predicts that it’s going to get hotter, but the amount of rain will probably stay the same. This increase in heat waves is significant for water and the types of trees that can survive. Even modest climate change will lead to major changes in forests.