Understanding and Assessing Impacts
FNA used case studies and scientific articles to assess the variations in sea ice in their area of interest. As polar bears rely on this ice to hunt, eat and mate, their population in FNA’s area of interest has the potential to deteriorate. Since FNA’s flagship product is an adventure trip in this polar bear-populated area, the changing in sea-ice formations pose a critical business risk. Careful supply chain planning was vital to FNA because they operated a base in Churchill, Manitoba, to which they needed to bring in materials. They had three options for transporting materials: fight, rail or barge. Barge and airfreight are expensive, so FNA relied predominately on rail. That approach ran into problems due to a changing climate. In 2015, the transfer of materials to Churchill by railroad was disrupted for five to six weeks because of changes in the permafrost layer. The team performed a collaborative risk and probability-based evaluation and scenario-planning exercise to develop recommendations. The team considered the operational and financial risks that FNA could face due to their assets being compromised due to environmental events, as well as the likelihood of occurrence. FNA also worked with scientists and NGOs to understand more impacts of climate change. The finance team used cost-benefit analyses, forecasting and scenario planning to detail risks and opportunities.