Understanding and Assessing Impact
The climate events selected by the Project Team and community members for the CRA include:
- Extreme cold temperatures (>-30°C)
- Heat Waves
- Winter Storms
- Summer Storms: High wind events, Short Duration Intense Rainfall, and Golf-ball sized Hail
Stantec completed a climate profile for the Yellow Quill First Nation lands using Canadian Gridded Data (CANGRD). Future climate projections are based on the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The average change in mean annual summer temperature is expected to increase by an estimated 3.5°C in the 2050s (2041 to 2070) to 5.9°C in the 2080s (2071 to 2100). Mean annual winter temperatures are also expected to increase by an estimated 3.7°C in the 2050s to 6.2°C in the 2080s above the 1981-2010 baseline due to climate change. Average annual precipitation in the prairies is highly variable due to influences from the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific-North American circulation, which can cause variable rainfall from one year to the next and intermittent droughts. In Yellow Quill, the annual precipitation is expected to increase in the future. The total summer and winter precipitation is expected to decrease, while the spring and fall precipitation is predicted to increase. There will be no change or a slight decrease in windspeeds at Yellow Quill. Given the warming climate and the expectation of increased extreme weather events, strong wind events associated with summer storms are expected to increase in frequency under future climate. Many of the infrastructure assets in Yellow Quill were constructed in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. These climate impacts will require Yellow Quill First Nation to develop adaptation actions to create more resilient community infrastructure.
For additional climate information, look at the Resources section of this example (below).