Understanding and Assessing Impacts
Coastal New Brunswick is increasingly susceptible to the effects of sea level rise and storm surge events related to our changing climate. Without contingency plans for such events and the implementation of adaptation measures to mitigate them, parts of the City of Bathurst could be in jeopardy when they occur. This document presents an assessment of the climate change impacts, as well as the risks and vulnerabilities of the City to coastal storm surges and erosion. At this time, the plan addresses primarily coastal sea level rise, storm surge risk, and erosion risk, as those were identified as priority hazards by the City. This assessment was carried out through an engagement process with City departments, a council committee, and a community stakeholder working group. Information obtained from this process was compiled and summarized, resulting in the identification of 31 sites that are most at risk within the City. An analysis of historical rates of erosion and predictions along the coast of the City of Bathurst was conducted. Climate models were used to project changes in average mean temperature and annual total precipitation (mm) by the year 2080. Flood risk scenarios as well as erosion predictions were used to map infrastructure at risk at various predicted flood levels in the next 85 years. Mapping was based on LiDAR, high precision digital elevation mapping, which was integrated into the City’s Geographic Information System. The risk assessment was carried out in consultation with City departments, the steering committee, and the community stakeholder working group.