Understanding and Assessing Impacts
PEI will face unique climate change impacts including increased temperatures and precipitation, sea level rise, and more frequent and intense storm surges and extreme weather events. To determine the vulnerability of the City of Summerside’s solar PV microgrid and battery storage system to the impacts of climate change, the PIEVC protocol was used. First, relevant climate parameters were identified based on expected vulnerability of the infrastructure. Climate parameters were further refined and assigned corresponding historical mean values (1976-2005) and/or historical trends to serve as a baseline. Future climate change projections for 2021-2050 and 2051-2080 for RCP 8.5, which is the worst-case business-as-usual emission scenario, were used. Projections obtained from Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) were downscaled from 24 general climate models from the CMIP5 dataset. The historical baseline climate parameters were compared to the future projections related to temperature, precipitation as rain and snow, sea level, solar radiation, and clouds to determine climate change trends for Summerside. Generally, Summerside will become warmer and wetter with +52-68 cm sea level rise and more intense storms by 2051-2080. To determine the impact of these trends on the project, infrastructure thresholds were developed based on professional judgement and design codes. If a climate parameter exceeded the determined infrastructure threshold, it indicated infrastructure performance or productivity would be affected. Finally, probability scores were assigned to indicate the probability that a climate parameter would trigger the infrastructure threshold.