Understanding and Assessing Impacts
Between 1997 and 2011 there were seven years where more than a million acres of cropland flooded in eastern Saskatchewan. Poor drainage and rainfall variability left many producers struggling with water management, affecting both soil health and crop production. In 2011, disaster assistance program payments reached $1.3 billion reflecting the severity of the impacts for producers. Over the last decade as part of Saskatchewan’s 10-year Growth Plan, agricultural production has increased to include an additional 85,000 acres of farmland without a framework on how to effectively manage water resources. WSA recognized a need to support producers by enhancing their capacity to prepare for future climate variability. Using Ouranos and Pacific Climate Futures, Environment and Climate Change Canada, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Prairie Climate Centre’s Climate Atlas of Canada’s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, and Climate Data Canada, PARC gathered historical trends, forecast data, and climate models, to communicate climate risks to the WSA, producers, and QPs. When comparing the temperature and precipitation changes in western Canada for the periods of 1971-2000 to the projected changes in 2041-2069, PARC found that Saskatchewan producers will be dealing with warmer and wetter winters and longer, warmer summers with extreme variability and weather events. WSA recognized that varying precipitation paired with the low compliance rates for The Water Security Agency Act would compound water quantity and quality issues, due to erosion, sedimentation, accumulation of dissolved agents, collection of nutrients leading to algae blooms, and overwhelming of a terminal basin. Furthermore, wildlife habitat would also be impacted through the unregulated conversion of wetlands to croplands, channelization of streams, and the alteration in hydrology.