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Table of Contents
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Map of Adaptation Actions
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Headlines
Summary
Chapter
1
Chapter
2
Chapter
3
Chapter
4
Chapter
5
Chapter
6
Chapter
7
Chapter
8
Headline Statements
View Chapter
Headline Statements
Executive Summary
View Chapter
Introduction
Global context
Temperature changes
Changes in rainfall and snowfall
Changes in climate extremes
Changes in snow and ice
Changes in freshwater availability
Ocean changes
Sea level change
Our future: choices matter
About This Report
View Chapter
1.1
Introduction
1.2
Purpose and scope
1.3
Sources of information and process of development
1.3.1
Sources of information
1.3.2
Process of development
1.4
Guide to the report
1.4.1
Key messages and use of calibrated uncertainty language
1.4.2
Time frames and time periods of analysis
1.4.3
Chapter guide
Understanding Observed Global Climate Change
View Chapter
Key Messages
Summary
2.1
Introduction
2.2
Observed changes in the global climate system
2.2.1
Global annual and extreme temperature changes
2.2.2
Global annual and extreme precipitation and related hydrological changes
2.2.3
Ocean changes
2.2.4
Changes in the cryosphere
Section summary
2.3
Understanding the causes of observed global climate change
2.3.1
Factors determining global climate
Section summary
2.3.2
Changes in greenhouse gases and radiative forcing over the Industrial Era
2.3.2.1
Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations over the Industrial Era
2.3.2.2
Changes in radiative forcing over the Industrial Era
Section summary
2.3.3
Natural climate variability
Section summary
2.3.4
Detection and attribution of observed changes
Section summary
Modelling Future Climate Change
View Chapter
Key Messages
Summary
3.1
Introduction
3.2
Future climate change and climate forcing
Section summary
3.3
Modelling the response of the climate system to external forcing
3.3.1
Earth system models
3.3.2
Sources of confidence and uncertainty
3.3.3
Global-scale climate projections
3.3.4
Compatible emissions
Section summary
3.4
Cumulative carbon dioxide and global temperature change
3.4.1
The climate response to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions
3.4.2
Irreversibility of climate change
Section summary
3.5
Regional downscaling
3.5.1
Downscaling strategies
3.5.2
Downscaling results for North America and Canada
Section summary
Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada
View Chapter
Key Messages
Summary
4.1
Introduction
4.2
Temperature
4.2.1
Mean temperature
4.2.1.1
Observed changes
4.2.1.2
Causes of observed changes
4.2.1.3
Projected changes and uncertainties
4.2.2
Temperature extremes and other indices
4.2.2.1
Observed changes
4.2.2.2
Causes of observed changes
4.2.2.3
Projected changes and uncertainties
Section summary
4.3
Precipitation
4.3.1
Mean Precipitation
4.3.1.1
Observed changes
4.3.1.2
Causes of observed changes
4.3.1.3
Projected changes and uncertainties
4.3.2
Extreme precipitation
4.3.2.1
Observed changes
4.3.2.2
Projected changes and uncertainties
Section summary
4.4
Attribution of extreme events
4.4.1
Attribution of two recent events
4.4.1.1
2013 Southern Alberta flood
4.4.1.2
2016 Fort McMurray wildfire
Section summary
Changes in Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Across Canada
View Chapter
Key Messages
Summary
5.1
Introduction
5.2
Snow cover
5.2.1
Observed changes in snow cover
5.2.2
Projected changes in snow cover
Section summary
5.3
Sea ice
5.3.1
Observed changes in sea ice
5.3.2
Projected changes in sea ice
Section summary
5.4
Glaciers and ice caps
5.4.1
Observed changes in glaciers and ice caps
5.4.2
Projected changes in glaciers and ice caps
Section summary
5.5
Lake and river ice
5.5.1
Observed changes in lake and river ice
5.5.2
Projected changes in lake and river ice
Section summary
5.6
Permafrost
5.6.1
Observed changes in permafrost
5.6.2
Projected changes in permafrost
Section summary
5.7
Discussion
Changes in Freshwater Availability Across Canada
View Chapter
Key Messages
Summary
6.1
Introduction
6.2
Surface runoff: streamflow
6.2.1
Streamflow magnitude
6.2.2
Streamflow timing
6.2.3
Streamflow regime
6.2.4
Streamflow-related floods
Section summary
6.3
Surface water levels: lakes and wetlands
6.3.1
Laurentian Great Lakes
6.3.2
Other lakes
6.3.3
Wetlands and deltas
Section summary
6.4
Soil moisture and drought
6.4.1
Soil moisture
6.4.2
Drought
Section summary
6.5
Groundwater
Section summary
Acknowledgements
Changes in Oceans Surrounding Canada
View Chapter
Key Messages
Summary
7.1
Introduction
7.2
Ocean temperature
7.2.1
Observations
7.2.1.1
Northeast Pacific Ocean
7.2.1.2
Northwest Atlantic Ocean
7.2.1.3
Arctic Ocean
7.2.2
Future projections
Section summary
7.3
Ocean salinity and density stratification
7.3.1
Observations
7.3.1.1
Northeast Pacific Ocean
7.3.1.2
Northwest Atlantic Ocean
7.3.1.3
Arctic Ocean
7.3.2
Future projections
Section summary
7.4
Marine winds, storms, and waves
7.4.1
Marine winds and storms
7.4.2:
Waves
Section summary
7.5
Sea level
7.5.1
Historical sea level
7.5.2
Future projections
7.5.2.1
Global sea-level rise
7.5.2.2
Vertical land motion
7.5.2.3
Other effects
7.5.2.4
Projections of relative sea-level change
7.5.3
Extreme water levels
Section summary
7.6
Ocean chemistry
7.6.1
Ocean acidification
7.6.2
Dissolved oxygen and hypoxia
7.6.3
Ocean nutrients
Section summary
Acknowledgments
Changes in Canada's Regions in a National and Global Context
View Chapter
8.1
Introduction
8.2
Global context
8.3
Changes across Canada
8.4
Changes in Canada’s regions
8.4.1
Changes in northern Canada
8.4.2
Changes in southern Canada
8.4.2.1:
Atlantic region
8.4.2.2
Quebec region
8.4.2.3
Ontario region
8.4.2.4
Prairies region
8.4.2.5
British Columbia region
8.5
Conclusions
